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# Kelly Criterion sports betting strategy explained

Complete Guide to the Kelly Criterion: Kelly Definition, Rules & Formulas from Free Betting Reviews experts.

Published on 10 May 2023

## Maximizing profit and minimizing risk with the Kelly Criterion

To maximize profits and minimize risk with the Kelly Criterion, bettors need to carefully calculate the optimal percentage of their bankroll to bet on each outcome. The Kelly formula takes into account the perceived probability of an outcome, as well as the odds offered by the bookmaker, to determine the exact amount of money that should be bet.

By using this formula, bettors can avoid over-betting on low-probability outcomes or under-betting on high-probability outcomes, which can result in missed opportunities for profit. Additionally, by keeping their bets within the recommended range of the Kelly formula, bettors can limit their risk of ruin and maintain a sustainable long-term betting strategy.

The key to successful sports betting with the Kelly Criterion is to find the right balance between maximizing profits and minimizing risk, and to have the discipline to follow the formula consistently over time.

## How to use the Kelly Criterion for successful sports betting?

The Kelly Criterion is a formula for managing your bankroll that calculates the optimal bet amount when there is a difference between the true odds and the given odds. While it may seem confusing, it is actually quite simple. Here is a formula:

(bp – q) / b = f

f = share of the bankroll for bets

b = decimal odds – 1

p = probability of winning

q = probability of losing, which is 1 – p

To use the Kelly Criterion for successful sports betting, bettors need to have a solid understanding of the formula and how it works.

• The first step is to estimate the probability of each outcome, based on factors such as team performance, injuries, and historical trends.
• Next, bettors should compare their estimates to the odds offered by the bookmaker, and calculate the implied probability of each outcome. Bettors can also use the Kelly Criterion calculator to fasten the process.
• Using these probabilities, bettors can then apply the Kelly formula to determine the optimal percentage of their bankroll to bet on each outcome. It is important to note that the Kelly Criterion is a dynamic formula, which means that it should be recalculated after each bet to account for changes in the bankroll and the perceived probability of outcomes.
• With practice and discipline, bettors can use the Kelly Criterion to make informed betting decisions and achieve long-term profitability.

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## Understanding the Kelly Criterion strategy in EPL matches

Let’s say a bettor is interested in betting on an upcoming English Premier League (EPL) match between Manchester United and Liverpool. After conducting research on both teams’ recent performances, injuries, and other relevant factors, the bettor estimates that Manchester United has a 55% chance of winning, while Liverpool has a 30% chance and a 15% chance of a draw. The bookmaker offers odds of 2.10 on Manchester United, 3.50 on Liverpool, and 3.40 on a draw. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the optimal percentage of the bettor’s bankroll to bet on Manchester United would be:

f* = (0.55 x 2.10 – 0.45) / 2.10 = 0.19

This means that the bettor should bet 19% of their bankroll on Manchester United to maximize their expected return. If the bettor has a bankroll of \$1,000, for example, their optimal bet size would be \$190. By using the Kelly Criterion in this way, the bettor can make informed, mathematically sound betting decisions that are designed to maximize profits while minimizing risk.

## Boost your betting success with the Kelly Criterion

To boost your betting success with the Kelly Criterion, it is essential to understand the key factors that go into its calculation. These include the bettor’s perceived advantage over the bookmaker, the probability of each outcome, and the odds offered by the bookmaker. Additionally, it is important to apply the Kelly Criterion consistently over time, rather than relying on hunches or emotions.

By using the Kelly Criterion formula to determine the optimal amount to bet on each outcome, bettors can minimize their risk of ruin and achieve long-term profitability. It is also important to manage your bankroll effectively, by setting aside a specific amount of money for betting and never exceeding it. With discipline, research, and a solid understanding of the Kelly Criterion, bettors can take their sports betting to the next level and increase their chances of success.

Kelly Criterion is a powerful tool that can help sports bettors maximize their profits while minimizing their risk. By estimating the probability of outcomes and comparing them to the bookmaker’s odds, bettors can use the Kelly formula to determine the optimal percentage of their bankroll to bet on each outcome.

While the Kelly Criterion is not a guaranteed path to success, it offers a mathematically sound approach to sports betting that is designed to help bettors achieve long-term profitability. To make the most of the Kelly Criterion, bettors should approach it with discipline, research, and a long-term perspective. With practice and patience, the Kelly Criterion can help bettors take their sports betting to the next level and achieve greater success.